Cirrus Market Update Q4 ’24

Cautious Optimism

We are entering the busy buying season for pre-owned aircraft and thought it appropriate to update you on the state of the Cirrus market. This is a broad analysis of the marketplace. For those of you actively buying or selling a Cirrus, we’d encourage you to discuss your specific aircraft with one of our agents because certain segments of the market may be experiencing different dynamics than the market as a whole.

As we’ve done in the past, we’ll first summarize our findings, leaving the details for those of you who like to geek-out with us about the details.

The overarching takeaway is that there is a lot of supply available to buyers, but there is also robust demand from fair-market buyers, so sellers who list their Cirrus’ in the appropriate price range will find success.

No Chicken Little

Despite some perceptions that the sky is falling, the Cirrus SR market appears quite healthy. Though supply increased significantly over the past two years, demand has steadily increased throughout the period. Inventory levels, which were a point of concern, seem to have stabilized. This is a positive indicator, suggesting that the market is absorbing much of the available aircraft effectively.

Don’t Forget the Denominator

One key metric highlighting the market’s resilience is the percentage of the fleet for sale, which has dropped from 5.2% to 4.4%. Though still above the historic norms of 3-4%, this decrease points to a tightening market where buyers are finding value in available aircraft. Additionally, the average days on market, which bottomed out when Covid-era demand ran rampant, has returned to its pre-pandemic range of 100-125 days. This return to a more traditional timeline indicates a market operating at a sustainable pace, balancing between supply and demand.

Finding Common Ground

Pricing trends further reinforce the market’s health. The spread between list price and closing price has narrowed to about 3%, down from the 5% peak seen in 2023. This tightening of the price spread reflects a market where sellers and buyers are more closely aligned on value, reducing the negotiation gap. Yet another sign of a healthy marketplace.

But G6s….

However, it’s worth noting that the G6 segments will continue to see more aggressive price adjustments than the broader market. While the indicators are generally moving in the right direction, the distortions created during Covid were more extreme and, therefore, require more time to revert to the norm. Fortunately for these sellers, much of the pain has already been felt and buyers appear to recognize this.

Predictions

Looking ahead, the obvious factors will influence the market. The upcoming presidential election may cause some buyers to hesitate until after the election’s conclusion. On the other hand, lower interest rates are likely to encourage buyers. Lastly, as is typical, tax-motivated buyers are expected to enter the market in Q4, providing the strong boost to demand we see late in the year. Our predictions? Yeah right…we’re not dumb enough to really make a prediction so you guys can then burn us about how wrong we were!

Connect with Aerista for Market Insights

At Aerista, we go beyond speculation, relying on data and market insights to navigate the ever-evolving aviation landscape. For a deeper dive into the marketplace or to obtain an estimate of your aircraft’s value, connect with us directly. Visit the AeristaMetrics section on www.aerista.com to explore the data we gather for a better understanding of the aviation marketplace.

Ready When You Are

Aerista stands ready to assist you in navigating the dynamic pre-owned aircraft market. Whether you’re looking to buy or sell your aircraft, our team is here to provide personalized assistance and valuable insights. Reach out to Aerista today.