SF50 Market Analysis: Canary in a Coal Mine?
Groucho Marx once said “statistics are like bathing suits; it’s not what they show you, it’s what they don’t show you.” To honor Groucho’s quip, we’ll attempt to not only highlight the primary SF50 pre-owned marketplace data, but also look behind the headline numbers to offer a fuller picture of market dynamics. We believe the data does show some concern for G2 pricing moving forward, given the recent trajectory of G1 prices and inventory, but the underlying dynamics not evident from the data are likely to foreshadow a softer landing for G2s than the data itself would predict. Groucho would be proud!
Cirrus SF50 Generation 1:
Cirrus SF50 Generation 2 (G2):
With Cirrus producing 100 new G2/G2+ units annually, the growing fleet size is likely to impact market balance, creating a situation where pricing pressure exists due to direct competition among sellers more than pricing pressure arising strictly from a large number of units being for sale as a percentage of fleet. In other words, the fleet is big and growing, so the percentage of fleet metric will look healthier than it is. The average price of G2/G2+ units has only decreased by roughly 5% in 2024. We believe the sellers of the 22 units for sale will begin to compete more fiercely going forward and, following some of the G1 lead, we will see more price adjustments in this segment.
Other Considerations: Waitlist, Supply Constraints, Pilot Pipeline:
With buyers of a new SF50 subject to a waitlist and a limited supply of late-model pre-owned G2+ units for sale, the market is experiencing notable supply constraints. Prospective buyers looking for newer aircraft (especially due to tax considerations), but unable to wait for a new unit, may turn to nearly new pre-owned G2 models. This will support demand in the segment. That said, this is somewhat tempered by the reality that the waitlist for new SF50 is dynamic and Cirrus often has a small inventory of new SF50’s available for delivery due to order cancellations. As a result, buyers of late model G2+ SF50s demand prices that are below that of a new G2+ SF50. Over the long term, the delivery of approximately 600 Cirrus SR22 units annually is a critical factor in the SF50 market. This steady stream of new pilots, trained in the SR22, drives aspirations for an upgrade to a jet, consistently buying demand for both new and pre-owned SF50s. This ongoing pipeline helps sustain an active market for the SF50. Buyers of SF50’s can be confident that they will find buyers when they decide it’s time to sell.
Conclusion
The SF50 market, now seven years old, continues to evolve with distinct trends for the G1 and G2 models. While statistics provide a snapshot of market behavior, understanding the underlying factors—such as supply constraints, pilot pipeline, and pricing dynamics—offers a more comprehensive view. A non-Groucho quote claims “understanding the granularity of the market is key; it’s in the details of data and behavior that we find the true story.” We tend to agree and believe the true story is that the G1’s market performance and pricing trend history of late offer valuable insights into the likely future direction of the G2/G2+ market.
Connect with Aerista for Market Insights
At Aerista, we go beyond speculation, relying on data and market insights to navigate the ever-evolving aviation landscape. For a deeper dive into the marketplace or to obtain an estimate of your aircraft’s value, connect with us directly. Visit the AeristaMetrics section on www.aerista.com to explore the data we gather for a better understanding of the aviation marketplace.
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