What a year it’s been, with Covid-19, BLM, the U.S. Presidential election, PPP, stimulus checks and skyrocketing stock markets all exerting massive influence on the general economy. With all this “noise,” it’s no surprise many are wondering how these trends are impacting the values of your Cirrus. We’re here to help…
Look at the data
It’s easy to see only the trees, when you’re in the forest. We think the best way to gain some perspective is by comparing basic data points from 2019 with those from 2020.
A look back: at the time of our Sep ’19 newsletter, supply of pre-owned Cirrus’ for sale was at historically very low levels (174 units), with only 3.5% of the Cirrus fleet for sale. Demand was strong – Cirrus’ backlog of new aircraft deliveries stretched out to Q2 2020 and Aerista’s sales activity was at record levels. Still, warning signals were in sight. Inventory in late model segments (G5 & G6) piled up, with a full 6% of the fleet for sale, and Cirrus still had plenty of 2019 demo planes for sale.
And now: 2020 is tracking stronger than 2019! The percentage of fleet for sale remains at a very low 3.5%, with supply equally low at 3.7 month’s of demand. Cirrus’ backlog stretches to Q2 2020 and they have sold all available 2020 deliveries! Aerista’s sales have skyrocketed – YTD deliveries are at 140 units, a whopping 75% higher than at this time last year. And those pesky late model segments? While the percentage of the combined G5/G6 fleet remains elevated (at about 5%), demand for these has ballooned, bringing supply down to 3 month’s worth of demand, which is very healthy. Even the SF50 market, which had languished for months, now finds itself in very short supply.
Going forward: our takeaway from the data is that the current supply/demand picture is even better than it was heading into Q4 last year. Of course, there is the potential for significant uncertainty, given the lack of resolution on many of the major fronts mentioned above. In the short term, however, there should be no doubt that it is a good time to sell a Cirrus (though maybe an upgrade is a better option, given the state of commercial airline travel)!
Aerista Market Monitor
We introduced the Aerista Market Monitor last year and have tweaked it a bit to make it more intuitive. With our AeristaMetrics 2.0 database providing a real-time assessment of the health of any given segment, taking into account the level of available inventory, and the current/recent level of sales activity, the AMM chart on the back of this letter displays the relative strength and weakness of individual market segments. We hope you find it useful.
As always, if there is anything we can help you with, or if you are interested in discussing the value of your Cirrus in today’s market, please don’t hesitate to call or write.