SF50 Market Analysis: Canary in a Coal Mine? The Data Tells a Different Story

Groucho Marx once said “statistics are like bathing suits; it’s not what they show you, it’s what they don’t show you.” To honor Groucho’s quip, we’ll attempt to not only highlight the primary SF50 pre-owned marketplace data, but also look behind the headline numbers to offer a fuller picture of market dynamics. We believe the data does show some concern for G2 pricing moving forward, given the recent trajectory of G1 prices and inventory, but the underlying dynamics not evident from the data are likely to foreshadow a softer landing for G2s than the data itself would predict. Groucho would be proud!

Cirrus SF50 Generation 1:

A key metric in gauging supply levels in the pre-owned aircraft market is the number of units for sale at any point in time relative to the number of units produced, or “percent of fleet for sale”. In the turbine market, 10% is typically viewed as a well-balanced level. Earlier this year, the G1 market was stagnant and unhealthy, with inventory levels reaching 14% of the fleet. The result of this oversupply was competition among sellers to find a price that buyers would pay for their unit. The ensuing price war led to the expected result, with more units being sold that came to market. As a result inventory levels now sit at 7% of total aircraft produced.

As noted, the only way for inventory levels in the G1 segment to retreat was for prices to adjust down to levels that would spur demand. The days of selling G1’s for over $2M are now long gone. The prices of G1 aircraft have dropped approximately 15% in 2024 reflecting the effects of newer models and the aircrafts’ aging status.

Cirrus SF50 Generation 2 (G2):

The G2/G2+’pre-owned market appears to be following the lead set by the G1 market, though with a large caveat – namely, we expect the percent of G2/G2+ fleet to top out at a much lower level than G1s did. Percent of fleet for G2/G2+share rose from 0.37% in March 2022 to almost 9% in late 2023. It has since retreated to roughly 6.5%, as of August 2024, but still seems slightly higher than the level where balance will be met. There are currently 22 G2 units on the market, with fleet size of roughly 400 units, ranging from early G2s with serial numbers in the low 100s to 2024’s carrying serial numbers in the 500s. This broad range highlights the model’s production history and variety.

With Cirrus producing 100 new G2/G2+ units annually, the growing fleet size is likely to impact market balance, creating a situation where pricing pressure exists due to direct competition among sellers more than pricing pressure arising strictly from a large number of units being for sale as a percentage of fleet. In other words, the fleet is big and growing, so the percentage of fleet metric will look healthier than it is. The average price of G2/G2+ units has only decreased by roughly 5% in 2024. We believe the sellers of the 22 units for sale will begin to compete more fiercely going forward and, following some of the G1 lead, we will see more price adjustments in this segment.

Other Considerations: Waitlist, Supply Constraints, Pilot Pipeline:

With buyers of a new SF50 subject to a waitlist and a limited supply of late-model pre-owned G2+ units for sale, the market is experiencing notable supply constraints. Prospective buyers looking for newer aircraft (especially due to tax considerations), but unable to wait for a new unit, may turn to nearly new pre-owned G2 models. This will support demand in the segment. That said, this is somewhat tempered by the reality that the waitlist for new SF50 is dynamic and Cirrus often has a small inventory of new SF50’s available for delivery due to order cancellations. As a result, buyers of late model G2+ SF50s demand prices that are below that of a new G2+ SF50. Over the long term, the delivery of approximately 600 Cirrus SR22 units annually is a critical factor in the SF50 market. This steady stream of new pilots, trained in the SR22, drives aspirations for an upgrade to a jet, consistently buying demand for both new and pre-owned SF50s. This ongoing pipeline helps sustain an active market for the SF50. Buyers of SF50’s can be confident that they will find buyers when they decide it’s time to sell.

Conclusion

The SF50 market, now seven years old, continues to evolve with distinct trends for the G1 and G2 models. While statistics provide a snapshot of market behavior, understanding the underlying factors—such as supply constraints, pilot pipeline, and pricing dynamics—offers a more comprehensive view. A non-Groucho quote claims “understanding the granularity of the market is key; it’s in the details of data and behavior that we find the true story.” We tend to agree and believe the true story is that the G1’s market performance and pricing trend history of late offer valuable insights into the likely future direction of the G2/G2+ market.

Connect with Aerista for Market Insights

At Aerista, we go beyond speculation, relying on data and market insights to navigate the ever-evolving aviation landscape. For a deeper dive into the marketplace or to obtain an estimate of your aircraft’s value, connect with us directly. Visit the AeristaMetrics section on www.aerista.com to explore the data we gather for a better understanding of the aviation marketplace.

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